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2013年5月29日星期三

Fast-sinking jellyfish could boost the oceans' uptake of carbon dioxide

To assess the efficiency of the biological carbon pump, data on sinking velocities of the different species are necessary. Together with colleagues from Germany, Spain, the United Kingdom and the United States, Dr. Mario Lebrato, Biological Oceanographer in Prof. Andreas Oschlies' group at GEOMAR Helmholtz Centre for Ocean Research Kiel, conducted field and laboratory experiments with gelatinous plankton remains. Their latest article in the international magazine "Limnology and Oceanography" describes for the first time the sinking speed of organic remains from jellyfish and pelagic tunicates. Together with a previous article in the same journal that calculated biomass export efficiency for these organisms for the first time, these new data allow robust estimates of global carbon export associated with gelatinous plankton.

For their experiments, the scientists collected different species of scyphozoans (true jellyfish), ctenophores (comb jellies), and thaliaceans (salps) in the Baltic, the Mediterranean, the Atlantic and the Southern Ocean. The sinking process was observed and filmed in large transparent cylinders filled with seawater at OceanLab Bremen by Dr. Pedro de Jesus Mendes. Later the proportion of organic carbon and nitrogen of the dry biomass and biomass weight were measured. The work was supported by the European Project on Ocean Acidification (EPOCA), the Kiel Cluster of Excellence The Future Ocean, the German project on ocean acidification BIOACID (Biological Impacts of Ocean Acidification), and the US National Science Foundation Office for Polar Programs.

"The sinking speed of jelly remains is much, much higher than what we expected, about 500 to 1600 meters per day," Lebrato sums up. "And, what puzzles researchers working on the biological carbon pump: it is higher than that of non-calcifying phytoplankton and marine snow, the main sinking particles and organic carbon sources to the ocean interior." Fast sinking means that the biomass and its constituents reach the deeper ocean layers without major degradation, where microbial decay releases CO₂ that can be stored without direct contact with the atmosphere for millennia. Also, fast sinking provides high quality food resources for benthic organisms, which has already been observed actively feeding on jelly remains. On continental shelves and slope areas, biomass may reach the seabed within a day or less.

Within the studied species, scyphozoans had on average the highest carbon content (26.97 percent), followed by thaliaceans (17.20 percent), and ctenophores (1.40 percent). The jelly carbon content is lower on average than that of phytoplankton or marine snow. But their large populations, occupying at times hundreds of square kilometers in the oceans, combined with a high sinking speed, can deliver large carbon quantities to the seabed.

"Our dataset provides an initial overview and comparison for modelers and experimentalists to use in subsequent studies examining the role of jellies in carbon export and the efficiency of the biological pump," Lebrato says. "We are continuously asked, how much organic carbon and CO₂ do gelatinous plankton sink worldwide, whether their export capacities are similar to phytoplankton and marine snow. And if an increase of jellyfish in the future will enhance organic carbon export and CO₂ sequestration. Until recently, few people believed that jelly organisms could play any major role in the carbon cycle, thus they have been excluded from large biogeochemical research programs. In consequence, the data available up to now are scarce and we are just starting to comprehend the fundamental properties that will allow us to better understand the role of jellyfish and pelagic tunicates in the global carbon cycle."

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Fast-sinking jellyfish could boost the oceans' uptake of carbon dioxide: Experiments show high sinking speed for dead gelatinous plankton species

May 28, 2013 — The oceans absorb about 25 percent of the carbon dioxide (CO₂) emitted by human activities. Since the industrial revolution, they have taken up about half of the human-made CO₂. Billions of planktonic organisms, too tiny to be seen with the naked eye, make this valuable service possible: When carbon dioxide from the atmosphere dissolves in seawater, various species convert it to organic carbon and other organic components during photosynthesis. Jellyfish and pelagic tunicates live on smaller plankton and thus consume organic carbon. When they sink to the seafloor at the end of their life cycles, they take the carbon from the surface waters with them, provide it as food to organisms at the bottom or store it in deep water layers after decomposition. As a result, more CO₂ can be dissolved in the oceans. Additionally, calcifying organisms incorporate the inorganic carbon in their calcium carbonate shells directly. They also contribute to the biological pump.

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2013年5月28日星期二

Century-old ocean data provides further confirmation of global warming

May 28, 2013 — A new NASA and university analysis of ocean data collected more than 135 years ago by the crew of the HMS Challenger oceanographic expedition provides further confirmation that human activities have warmed our planet over the past century.

Researchers from the University of Tasmania, Sandy Bay, Australia; and NASA's Jet Propulsion Laboratory, Pasadena, Calif., combined the ship's measurements of ocean temperatures with modern observations from the international Argo array of ocean profiling floats. They used both as inputs to state-of-the-art climate models, to get a picture of how the world's oceans have changed since the Challenger's voyage.

The Challenger expedition, from 1872 to 1876, was the world's first global scientific survey of life beneath the ocean surface. Along the way, scientists measured ocean temperatures, lowering thermometers hundreds of meters deep on ropes.

"The key to this research was to determine the range of uncertainty for the measurements taken by the crew of the Challenger," said Josh Willis, a JPL climate scientist and NASA project scientist for the upcoming U.S./European Jason-3 oceanography satellite, scheduled to launch in 2015. "After we had taken all these uncertainties into account, it became apparent that the rate of warming we saw across the oceans far exceeded the degree of uncertainty around the measurements. So, while the uncertainty was large, the warming signal detected was far greater."

Uncertainties around the Challenger's measurements were caused by the limited areas measured during the voyage; the actual depths the thermometers descended to; and the likely natural variation in temperature that could occur in each region during the voyage.

"Our research revealed warming of the planet can be clearly detected since 1873 and that our oceans continue to absorb the great majority of this heat," said researcher and lead author Will Hobbs of the University of Tasmania's Institute for Marine and Antarctic Studies and the Australian Research Council's Centre of Excellence for Climate System Science. "Currently, scientists estimate the oceans absorb more than 90 percent of the heat trapped by greenhouse gases, and we attribute the global warming to anthropogenic (human-produced) causes."

The Challenger expedition measurements also revealed that thermal expansion of sea water caused by global warming contributed about 40 percent of the total sea level rise seen in tide gauges from 1873 to 1955. The remaining 60 percent was likely to have come from the melting of ice sheets and glaciers. Prior to this research, climate models offered the only way to estimate the change before the 1950s.

Results of the study are published in the journal Geophysical Research Letters.

For more on the study, visit: http://www.imas.utas.edu.au/right-column-content/whats-new3/news/century-old-science-helps-confirm-global-warming .

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Formula for turning cement into 'metal'

"This new material has lots of applications, including as thin-film resistors used in liquid-crystal displays, basically the flat panel computer monitor that you are probably reading this from at the moment," said Chris Benmore, a physicist from the U.S. Department of Energy's (DOE) Argonne National Laboratory who worked with a team of scientists from Japan, Finland and Germany to take the "magic" out of the cement-to-metal transformation. Benmore and Shinji Kohara from Japan Synchrotron Radiation Research Institute/SPring-8 led the research effort.

This change demonstrates a unique way to make metallic-glass material, which has positive attributes including better resistance to corrosion than traditional metal, less brittleness than traditional glass, conductivity, low energy loss in magnetic fields, and fluidity for ease of processing and molding. Previously, only metals have been able to transition to a metallic-glass form. Cement does this by a process called electron trapping, a phenomena only previously seen in ammonia solutions. Understanding how cement joined this exclusive club opens the possibility of turning other solid normally insulating materials into room-temperature semiconductors.

"This phenomenon of trapping electrons and turning liquid cement into liquid metal was found recently, but not explained in detail until now," Benmore said. "Now that we know the conditions needed to create trapped electrons in materials we can develop and test other materials to find out if we can make them conduct electricity in this way."

The results were reported May 27 in the journal the Proceeding of the National Academy of Sciences in the article "Network topology for the formation of solvated electrons in binary CaO-Al₂O₃ composition glasses."

The team of scientists studied mayenite, a component of alumina cement made of calcium and aluminum oxides. They melted it at temperatures of 2,000 degrees Celsius using an aerodynamic levitator with carbon dioxide laser beam heating. The material was processed in different atmospheres to control the way that oxygen bonds in the resulting glass. The levitator keeps the hot liquid from touching any container surfaces and forming crystals. This let the liquid cool into glassy state that can trap electrons in the way needed for electronic conduction. The levitation method was developed specifically for in-situ measurement at Argonne's Advanced Photon Source by a team led by Benmore.

The scientists discovered that the conductivity was created when the free electrons were "trapped" in the cage-like structures that form in the glass. The trapped of electrons provided a mechanism for conductivity similar to the mechanism that occurs in metals.

To uncover the details of this process, scientists combined several experimental techniques and analyzed them using a supercomputer. They confirmed the ideas in experiments using different X-ray techniques at Spring 8 in Japan combined with earlier measurements at the Intense Pulsed Neutron Source and the Advanced Photon Source.

Research was supported by the Ministry of Education, Culture, Sports, Science, and Technology of Japan, the Japan Science and Technology Agency, and the Academy of Finland.

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Stem cell injections improve spinal injuries in rats

May 27, 2013 — An international team led by researchers at the University of California, San Diego School of Medicine reports that a single injection of human neural stem cells produced neuronal regeneration and improvement of function and mobility in rats impaired by an acute spinal cord injury (SCI).

The findings are published in the May 28, 2013 online issue of Stem Cell Research & Therapy.

Martin Marsala, MD, professor in the Department of Anesthesiology, with colleagues at UC San Diego and in Slovakia, the Czech Republic and The Netherlands, said grafting neural stem cells derived from a human fetal spinal cord to the rats' spinal injury site produced an array of therapeutic benefits -- from less muscle spasticity to new connections between the injected stem cells and surviving host neurons.

"The primary benefits were improvement in the positioning and control of paws during walking tests and suppression of muscle spasticity," said Marsala, a specialist in spinal cord trauma and spinal injury-related disorders. Spasticity -- exaggerated muscle tone or uncontrolled spasms -- is a serious and common complication of traumatic injury to the spinal cord.

The human stem cells, said the scientists, appeared to vigorously take root at the injury site.

"In all cell-grafted animals, there was robust engraftment, and neuronal maturation of grafted human neurons was noted," Marsala said. "Importantly, cysts or cavities that can form in or around spinal injuries were not present in any cell-treated animal. The injury-caused cavity was completely filled by grafted cells."

The rats received the pure stem cell grafts three days after injury (no other supporting materials were used) and were given drugs to suppress an immune response to the foreign stem cells. Marsala said grafting at any time after the injury appears likely to work in terms of blocking the formation of spinal injury cavities, but that more work would be required to determine how timing affects functional neurological benefit.

The grafted stem cells, according to Marsala, appear to be doing two things: stimulating host neuron regeneration and partially replacing the function of lost neurons.

"Grafted spinal stem cells are rich source of different growth factors which can have a neuroprotective effect and can promote sprouting of nerve fibers of the host neurons. We have also demonstrated that grafted neurons can develop contacts with the host neurons and, to some extent, restore the connectivity between centers, above and below the injury, which are involved in motor and sensory processing."

The scientists used a line of human embryonic stem cells recently approved for Phase 1 human trials in patients with chronic traumatic spinal injuries. Marsala said the ultimate goal is to develop neural precursor cells (capable of becoming any of the three main cell types in the nervous system) from induced pluripotent stem cells derived from patients, which would likely eliminate the need for immunosuppression treatment.

Pending approval by UC San Diego's Institutional Review Board, the next step is a small phase 1 trial to test safety and efficacy with patients who have suffered a thoracic spinal cord injury (between vertebrae T2-T12) one to two years earlier, and who have no motor or sensory function at or below the spinal injury site.

"This is exciting, especially because, historically, there has been very little to offer patients with acute spinal cord injury," said study co-author Joseph Ciacci, MD, professor of surgery and program director of the Neurosurgery Residency at the UC San Diego School of Medicine. Ciacci, who is also chief of neurosurgery for the Veterans Affairs San Diego Healthcare System, will oversee the clinical trial at UC San Diego and the VA.

Ciacci said if the initial study confirms safety and efficacy, as well as the viability of the implanted cells, neural regeneration and decreased spasticity, the protocol can be expanded to other patients with other forms of severe spinal cord injury.

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Scientists find mechanism that causes noise-induced tinnitus and drug that can prevent it

An estimated 5 to 15 percent of Americans hear whistling, clicking, roaring and other phantom sounds of tinnitus, which typically is induced by exposure to very loud noise, said senior investigator Thanos Tzounopoulos, Ph.D., associate professor and member of the auditory research group in the Department of Otolaryngology, Pitt School of Medicine.

"There is no cure for it, and current therapies such as hearing aids don't provide relief for many patients," he said. "We hope that by identifying the underlying cause, we can develop effective interventions."

The team focused on an area of the brain that is home to an important auditory center called the dorsal cochlear nucleus (DCN). From previous research in a mouse model, they knew that tinnitus is associated with hyperactivity of DCN cells -- they fire impulses even when there is no actual sound to perceive. For the new experiments, they took a close look at the biophysical properties of tiny channels, called KCNQ channels, through which potassium ions travel in and out of the cell.

"We found that mice with tinnitus have hyperactive DCN cells because of a reduction in KCNQ potassium channel activity," Dr. Tzounopoulos said. "These KCNQ channels act as effective "brakes" that reduce excitability or activity of neuronal cells."

In the model, sedated mice are exposed in one ear to a 116-decibel sound, about the loudness of an ambulance siren, for 45 minutes, which was shown in previous work to lead to the development of tinnitus in 50 percent of exposed mice. Dr. Tzounopoulos and his team tested whether an FDA-approved epilepsy drug called retigabine, which specifically enhances KCNQ channel activity, could prevent the development of tinnitus. Thirty minutes into the noise exposure and twice daily for the next five days, half of the exposed group was given injections of retigabine.

Seven days after noise exposure, the team determined whether the mice had developed tinnitus by conducting startle experiments, in which a continuous, 70 dB tone is played for a period, then stopped briefly and then resumed before being interrupted with a much louder pulse. Mice with normal hearing perceive the gap in sounds and are aware something had changed, so they are less startled by the loud pulse than mice with tinnitus, which hear phantom noise that masks the moment of silence in between the background tones.

The researchers found that mice that were treated with retigabine immediately after noise exposure did not develop tinnitus. Consistent with previous studies, 50 percent of noise-exposed mice that were not treated with the drug exhibited behavioral signs of the condition.

"This is an important finding that links the biophysical properties of a potassium channel with the perception of a phantom sound," Dr. Tzounopoulos said. "Tinnitus is a channelopathy, and these KCNQ channels represent a novel target for developing drugs that block the induction of tinnitus in humans."

The KCNQ family is composed of five different subunits, four of which are sensitive to retigabine. He and his collaborators aim to develop a drug that is specific for the two KCNQ subunits involved in tinnitus to minimize the potential for side effects.

"Such a medication could be a very helpful preventive strategy for soldiers and other people who work in situations where exposure to very loud noise is likely," Dr. Tzounopoulos said. "It might also be useful for other conditions of phantom perceptions, such as pain in a limb that has been amputated."

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Advanced biological computer developed

May 23, 2013 — Using only biomolecules (such as DNA and enzymes), scientists at the Technion-Israel Institute of Technology have developed and constructed an advanced biological transducer, a computing machine capable of manipulating genetic codes, and using the output as new input for subsequent computations. The breakthrough might someday create new possibilities in biotechnology, including individual gene therapy and cloning.

The findings appear today (May 23, 2013) in Chemistry & Biology (Cell Press).

Interest in such biomolecular computing devices is strong, mainly because of their ability (unlike electronic computers) to interact directly with biological systems and even living organisms. No interface is required since all components of molecular computers, including hardware, software, input and output, are molecules that interact in solution along a cascade of programmable chemical events.

"Our results show a novel, synthetic designed computing machine that computes iteratively and produces biologically relevant results," says lead researcher Prof. Ehud Keinan of the Technion Schulich Faculty of Chemistry. "In addition to enhanced computation power, this DNA-based transducer offers multiple benefits, including the ability to read and transform genetic information, miniaturization to the molecular scale, and the aptitude to produce computational results that interact directly with living organisms."

The transducer could be used on genetic material to evaluate and detect specific sequences, and to alter and algorithmically process genetic code. Similar devices, says Prof. Keinan, could be applied for other computational problems.

"All biological systems, and even entire living organisms, are natural molecular computers. Every one of us is a biomolecular computer, that is, a machine in which all components are molecules "talking" to one another in a logical manner. The hardware and software are complex biological molecules that activate one another to carry out some predetermined chemical tasks. The input is a molecule that undergoes specific, programmed changes, following a specific set of rules (software) and the output of this chemical computation process is another well defined molecule."

Also contributing to the research were postdoctoral fellows Dr. Tamar Ratner and Dr. Ron Piran of the Technion's Schulich Faculty of Chemistry, and Dr. Natasha Jonoska of the Department of Mathematics at the University of South Florida.

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Monkey teeth help reveal Neanderthal weaning

A team of U.S. and Australian researchers reports in the journal Nature May 22 that they can now use fossil teeth to calculate when a Neanderthal baby was weaned. The new technique is based in part on knowledge gained from studies of teeth from human infants and from monkeys at the California National Primate Research Center at the University of California, Davis.

Using the new technique, the researchers concluded that at least one Neanderthal baby was weaned at much the same age as most modern humans.

Just as tree rings record the environment in which a tree grew, traces of barium in the layers of a primate tooth can tell the story of when an infant was exclusively milk-fed, when supplemental food started, and at what age it was weaned, said Katie Hinde, professor of human evolutionary biology at Harvard University and an affiliate scientist at the UC Davis Primate Center. Hinde directs the Comparative Lactation Laboratory at Harvard and has conducted a three-year study of lactation, weaning and behavior among rhesus macaques at UC Davis.

The team was able to determine exact timing of birth, when the infant was fed exclusively on mother's milk, and the weaning process, from mineral traces in teeth. By studying monkey teeth and comparing them to center records, they could show that the technique was accurate almost to the day.

After validating the technique with monkeys, the scientists applied it to human teeth and a Neanderthal tooth. They found that the Neanderthal baby was fed exclusively on mother's milk for seven months, followed by seven months of supplementation -- a similar pattern to present-day humans. The technique opens up extensive opportunities to further investigate lactation in fossils and museum collections of primate teeth.

Although there is some variation among human cultures, the accelerated transition to foods other than mother's milk is thought to have emerged in our ancestral history due, in part, to more cooperative infant care and access to a more nutritious diet, Hinde said. Shorter lactation periods could mean shorter gaps between pregnancies and a higher rate of reproduction. However, there has been much debate about when our ancestors evolved accelerated weaning.

For the past few decades researchers have relied on tooth eruption age as a direct proxy for weaning age. Yet recent investigations of wild chimpanzees have shown that the first molar eruption occurs toward the end of weaning.

"By applying these new techniques to primate teeth in museum collections, we can more precisely assess maternal investment across individuals within species, as well as life history evolution among species," Hinde said.

Authors in addition to Hinde were: Christine Austin and Manish Arora, Icahn School of Medicine at Mount Sinai, New York, Harvard School of Public Health, and University of Sydney, Australia; Tanya Smith, Harvard University; Asa Bradman and Brenda Eskenazi, UC Berkeley; Renaud Joannes-Boyau, Southern Cross University, Lismore, Australia; David Bishop, Dominic Hare and Philip Doble, University of Technology Sydney, Australia.

The work was funded by the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency, U.S. National Institute of Environmental Health Sciences, U.S. National Science Foundation, Australian National Health and Medical Research Council, Australian Research Council and Harvard University.

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Facial-recognition technology proves its mettle

May 24, 2013 — In a study that evaluated some of the latest in automatic facial recognition technology, researchers at Michigan State University were able to quickly identify one of the Boston Marathon bombing suspects from law enforcement video, an experiment that demonstrated the value of such technology.

In the Pattern Recognition and Image Processing laboratory, Anil Jain, MSU Distinguished Professor of computer science and engineering, and Josh Klontz, a research scientist, tested three different facial-recognition systems.

By using actual law-enforcement video from the bombing, they found that one of the three systems could provide a "rank one" identification -- a match -- of suspect Dzokhar Tsarnaev.

"The other suspect, Tamerlan Tsarnaev, the one ultimately killed in the shootout with police, could not be matched at a sufficiently high rank, partly because he was wearing sunglasses," Jain said. "The younger brother could be identified.

"This study was revealing in that facial recognition technology can successfully handle some cases in which facial images extracted from a video were captured under favorable conditions," he said.

Under controlled conditions, when the face is angled toward the camera and if the lighting is good, this technology can be up to 99 percent accurate.

Automatic face recognition can quickly attach a name to a face by searching a large database of face images and finding the closest match. This is what law enforcement agencies typically do for mug shot databases.

It is unknown, Jain said, what automatic facial recognition technologies were used by investigators in Boston. Some algorithms are better suited than others for face recognition in uncontrolled video.

While the technology has made great strides in recent years, it doesn't mean that improvements aren't needed. Also, more police agencies have to put the technology to use.

"If you use an automatic system, it speeds up the process," Jain said. "Sometimes police get bad tips so innocent people are questioned. Such situations can be avoided with a robust and accurate face-recognition system."

Jain and his team are internationally recognized in the field of identification technology. His team has developed methods to match forensic facial sketches with mug shots, as well as technology that allows police to identify criminal suspects by tattoo matching.

Klontz and Jain's technical paper on evaluating automatic facial recognition technology can be viewed here.

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SOI wafer supplier sees cash halved

LONDON – French semiconductor materials supplier Soitec SA, has reported a net loss of 209.5 million euro (about $270 million) on consolidated sales of 262.9 million euro (about $340 million), in its audited financial results for the year to March 31, 2013.

Soitec (Bernin, France) is the primary supplier of semiconductor-on-insulator (SOI) wafers for use in the fully-depleted SOI (FDSOI) manufacturing process that is being pioneered by STMicroelectronics NV (Geneva, Switzerland) at theCrolles wafer fab near Grenoble, France.

Soitec's net loss for 2012-2013 was 79.7 percent of sales and nearly four times larger than the net loss in the previous financial year. At the same time the consolidated sales declined by 18.7 percent compared with the previous year, which Soitec ascribed to declines in PC and related sales. Soitec reported cash resources of 130.1 million euro (about $168 million) at the end of March 2013 compared with cash resources of 259.8 million euro (about $336 million) at the end of March 2012.

The net loss included financial expenses and non-cash impairment charges, nonetheless the operating loss for the year was 123.0 million euro (about $160 million) compared with 45.9 million euro (about $60 million) in the previous year. Soitec said this was due to a significant decrease in demand for 300-mm diameter wafers, low asset utilization and continued investments in R&D.

Operating cash flow for the full year was negative 38.7 million euro (about $50 million) although was reduced to negative 1.3 million euro (about $1.7 million) in the second half of the financial year, Soitec reported.

When Soitec announced its unaudited results for the financial year in April 2013 the company indicated the outlook for sales in the coming financial year would remain soft. This is mainly due to cannibalization of PC-related markets by smartphones and tablet computers.

Related links and articles:

www.soitec.com

News articles:

Europe launches $12 billion chip support campaign

Europe backs FDSOI fabs

Intel moves forward with European 450-mm project

Soitec boosts production of silicon-on-sapphire wafers

MEMC introduces SOI wafers for FinFET over oxide

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Understanding the past and predicting the future by looking across space and time

May 25, 2013 — Studying complex systems like ecosystems can get messy, especially when trying to predict how they interact with other big unknowns like climate change.

In a new paper published this week (May 20) in the Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences, researchers from the University of Wisconsin-Madison and elsewhere validate a fundamental assumption at the very heart of a popular way to predict relationships between complex variables.

To model how climate changes may impact biodiversity, researchers like Jessica Blois and John W. (Jack) Williams routinely use an approach called "space-for-time substitution." The idea behind this method is to use the information in current geographic distributions of species to build a model that can predict climate-driven ecological changes in the past or future. But does it really work?

"It's a necessary assumption, but it's generally untested," says lead study author Blois, a former postdoctoral fellow with Williams at UW-Madison. She is now an assistant professor at the University of California, Merced. "Yet we're using this every day when we make predictions about biodiversity going into the future with climate change."

Their results should give other ecologists -- and potentially others such as economists who use similar models -- more confidence in their methods.

"At these spatial and temporal scales, the space-for-time assumption does work well," says Williams, professor of geography and director of the Center for Climatic Research at the UW-Madison Nelson Institute for Environmental Studies. "Our fossil data did support the idea that you can use spatial relationships as a source of information for making these predictions for the future."

Their research focus is paleoecology, the study of ancient ecosystems. By looking at fossilized pollen trapped in cores of sediment from the bottoms of lakes, the scientists reconstructed information about the plant communities present at locations across eastern North America during the past 21,000 years.

If climate has influenced communities the same way across space and through time, Blois explains, then a model based on the spatial data should make the same predictions as a model based on their temporal data. And in fact, they did.

The space-for-time model explained about 72 percent of the variation seen in their time data, and the remainder is likely due to other biological and environmental factors that the simplified model does not include, Blois says.

Though the testing does not capture all the ways space-for-time substitutions are used in other predictive fields, she says that the results are very encouraging for questions spanning large geographic and time scales -- scales at which collecting good temporal data can be very challenging.

"We found that at these broad time scales we're looking at, that space does substitute for time relatively well," Blois says. "It makes me more confident in my analyses going forward."

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