Business 6.9% semi growth this year and double digit next year, says Penn.

Business 6.9% semi growth this year and double digit next year, says Penn.

2013/07/23

A stonking Q2 will see the semiconductor industry grow nearly 7% this year, Malcolm Penn, CEO of Future Horizons, told IFS2013 in London this morning.

Q2 grew 8.8% said Penn and Q3 is expected to grow 8.5%.

April grew 18% on March in IC unit sales terms. “One more 18% growth month will test the supply chain to the limit,” said Penn.

Inventory is at rock bottom.

Q1, of course, showed a disastrous 5% fall and Q4 is scheduled to fall 2.1%.

The downside risks to a 6.9% growth year, which was first forecast by Penn in January, are now less. “The negatives associated with that number are diminishing,” said Penn.

ASPs are the weak link in the equation. They are still trending down and the growth is all coming from the units. Flattening ASPs would have a big effect on the forecast.

“If the 2023 recovery holds, then 2014-15 will be bungee – a double digit growth year,” said Penn.

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